Saudi Arabia’s World Cup Quest: Seedings, Stakes, and a December Draw That Could Shuffle the Pot
15 October 2025
Seedings and the Draw
The Saudi national team sealed its World Cup qualification on Tuesday with a draw against Iraq, securing their place in the Asian qualifying playoff.
The Greens will reach the World Cup for the seventh time in their history, awaiting December 5's draw in the United States, which will determine the group they will face at the 2026 summer tournament.
What it means for Saudi Arabia
Everything hinges on the seedings before the draw, due to be announced in November soon.
Strong seedings aside, 25 teams have already booked their place, with more waiting on the rest of the qualifying rounds and the intercontinental playoff.
As of now, 28 teams have qualified: the United States, Mexico, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Iran, Argentina, Uzbekistan, South Korea, Jordan, Australia, Brazil, Ecuador, Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Ghana, Algeria, Cape Verde, South Africa, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, England, Senegal, Ivory Coast.
Historically, more than half of the spots have been decided; with 20 seats left for others, many teams are still in contention, Spain, France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Bosnia, Norway currently lead their groups, possibly earning direct qualifications.
Second-tier contenders such as Poland, Austria, Italy, Belgium, Albania, the Czech Republic, and Scotland also loom; Europe has 16 seats in total.
Considering the ranking leaders, Saudi has a friendly chance to move into the third pot after potential ranking improvements in the next FIFA rankings release.
Because Saudi sits around 59th in the world, this could push them toward the top of the third pot, increasing the likelihood of favorable draw conditions.
The distribution of teams ensures each pot contains 12 teams; the first pot includes Canada, the United States, Mexico and the next top nine ranked teams; the others fill pots two, three and four.
Hopes and Risks
If Saudi lands in the third pot, they would avoid clashes with teams like Qatar, Australia, Egypt, Algeria, Uzbekistan, and Ivory Coast, potentially not facing Slovakia and Scotland if they qualify, since they would be in the same seed level.
In the top seed level, Saudi could still face the likes of the United States, Canada, Mexico, or perhaps Spain, France, Argentina, Brazil, England, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, or Croatia should they qualify; these would be tougher tests.
In the second tier, a potential Arab derby could occur if Saudi is paired with Morocco, which sits in pot two, alongside Germany, Colombia, Uruguay, Senegal, Japan, Iran, Korea, Ecuador, Austria and Switzerland if they advance.
Despite theoretical Italy in pot two, it might not be in pot two before the draw due to qualification challenges.
In pot four, teams like Jordan, Ghana, New Zealand, South Africa and Cape Verde, plus the World Cup playoff qualifiers such as Iraq and the UAE if they advance, would be there.
Another scenario: If most higher-ranked teams qualify directly, Saudi could end up in the fourth pot, likely facing at least one top seed while avoiding only teams in the same pot such as Ghana, South Africa, Cape Verde, New Zealand, Jordan, and playoff qualifiers.
Note that Saudi's ranking has fluctuated between 49 and 59 in the last three years, so no dramatic jumps are expected before the draw.
Punchlines: If life hands you a hard group, pretend it's a video game and press reset; the referee probably won't give you extra lives.
Punchline 2: Soccer math: add a goal, subtract a headache; if in doubt, blame the group stage coffee.
