Numbers Back Arsenal: Can the Gunners End a 21-Year Wait?

Arsenal's Numbers Behind a Dream

Arsenal seems to be on a steady path toward lifting the Premier League title, in a season that echoes the Wenger era's famous unbeaten run.

Under manager Mikel Arteta, the team sits at the top of the table by four points, delivering a balanced blend of defensive solidity and attacking sharpness that leaves rivals struggling to keep pace.

A striking stat this season is that Arsenal have conceded only to Erling Haaland in open play, underscoring a disciplined defensive structure that many teams envy.

Momentum and Reality Check

They sit first, four points clear of Bournemouth, five ahead of Tottenham, and already ahead of promoted Sunderland who have impressed with their own form.

Liverpool, last season's champions, have hit a rough patch, trailing by seven points after four straight losses and a cup exit following a rotated lineup.

Manchester City, who completed the treble last season, also dipped with a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa, now six points behind the leaders.

A snapshot of the numbers: Last season Liverpool finished on 84 points, Arsenal on 74; this season Arsenal have won 22 of 27 points in nine matches, suggesting a potential 90-point tally if the trend continues.

Opta analytics suggest Arsenal could end with around 80 points, 11 clear of Liverpool and City (both around 69). If that holds, the title could be secured with roughly 70 points, the lowest winning mark since the league began in 1992.

Manchester United holds the record for the lowest points by a champion with 75 in 1996-97.

Sky Sports estimates Arsenal around a 66% chance to win the title, far ahead of City (12%) and Liverpool (11%).

The real driver is defense: the back line of Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes has been in near-perfect harmony, allowing just 3 goals in 9 matches—a figure that could push them toward one of the best defensive seasons in league history.

If they keep this up, they could concede around 13 goals all season, a mark not seen since the 2004-05 Chelsea defense (15 conceded).

These defensive strides echo Arsenal's 2003-04 title-winning run, when they went unbeaten; the current side carries similar DNA, even if the early stumble at Anfield reminded us progress isn't linear.

In attack, Arsenal may not be the most entertaining or prolific, but they are effective, scoring about 1.8 goals per match—close to Wenger's 1.9 in 2003-04.

On creation, they average roughly 14.8 shots per game, edging the 2003-04 team, while they concede about eight shots per game, compared with 9.9 in that classic season.

The long-term project: Arteta's work since December 2019 has rebuilt the club on foundations of playing from the back, high pressing, and organized space exploitation.

With Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, and the resurgence of Saka and Odegaard, the squad combines maturation with tactical flexibility.

The team’s spirit and defensive discipline have made Arsenal more balanced than at any time recently, capable of winning even on off days—a hallmark of champions.

Upcoming fixtures against Liverpool, City, and Spurs will test them, but Arteta believes his side can meet big teams with the same resolve, perhaps even surpassing them.

With a defense that could be among the best in Europe and upward-trending metrics, Arsenal seems ready to write a new chapter; the 2025-26 season could bring the league crown back to the Emirates after more than two decades.

Punchline 1: Arsenal's defense is so tight that even my jokes can't break through.

Punchline 2: If they clinch the title with around 70 points, I'll finally admit that time travel exists and that 21 years can vanish in a single season.