Italy's World Cup 2026 Playoff Hunt: A Curse, a Draw, and a New Coach in the Spotlight

Overview: Italy's Path to the World Cup 2026 Playoffs

Italy now knows that their potential semi-final playoff opponent will come from one of four teams: North Macedonia, Romania, Sweden, or Northern Ireland. The 2026 World Cup qualifying phase has ended, with the 12 group winners advancing directly to next summer's tournament. Italy is among the playoff qualifiers, joining Croatia, England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, and Scotland. Today’s European playoff draw will determine which opponent Italy could meet in the semi-final, and Italy sits in Pot 1, the seed for the best-ranked teams in the qualifying pool.

Thanks to their FIFA ranking, the Azzurri will be in Pot 1 in the draw, giving them the advantage of a one-off semi-final in March 2026 and potentially hosting the match. In the semi-finals, Italy will face a Level 4 opponent—the lowest seeds among the playoff teams that did not qualify directly through the European qualifiers. If Italy advances from the semi-final on March 26, they would meet a Level 2 or Level 3 team in the final on March 31.

What the Playoff Levels Look Like

The playoff structure is divided into four levels. Level 1 includes Italy, Turkey, Ukraine, and Denmark; Level 2 features Wales, Slovakia, Poland, and the Czech Republic; Level 3 comprises the Republic of Ireland, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo; Level 4 contains Sweden, Romania, North Macedonia, and Northern Ireland. One of Ireland, Sweden, or North Macedonia will be Italy's semi-final opponent, a foe that has historically hampered the Azurri's World Cup ambitions. North Macedonia knocked Italy out of the 2022 playoff, and Sweden did the same ahead of the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Ireland even blocked Italy's qualification in 1958 in Sweden, while Italy's first absence in 1930 was a federation decision tied to distance and economic woes.

What Italy Did During Qualifying

How did the Azzurri fare in qualifying? They finished second in Group 9 with 18 points from eight matches, six points behind the group winner Norway. The campaign began with a jolt: a heavy away loss to Norway, 3-0, with goals from Sorloth, Nusa, and Erling Haaland, triggering questions about coach Luciano Spalletti's stewardship. Rumors swirled that the federation planned to dismiss Spalletti after the Moldova match, and Spalletti himself conceded that his job could hinge on that fixture.

Italy then beat Moldova 2-0 at home, with Giacomo Raspaduri and Andrea Campiasso scoring, providing the early points that sparked a revival. The federation, seeking a change, appointed Genaro Gattuso, former Milan icon, as the new coach, and the revival began in earnest: a 5-0 win over Estonia, a 5-4 thriller against Israel, a 3-1 win over Estonia, a 3-0 win over Israel, and another 2-0 win over Moldova. Yet in the final group game at home against Norway, the Azurri were stunned by a 4-1 defeat, a humiliating setback that underscored the fragility of the campaign.

The defeat was described as a debacle, with Italy conceding four goals at home—the first time since 1955 against Yugoslavia—and suffering four goals in the second half for the first time since that same era. It also marked the first time since 1983 that Italy had lost a home game by three or more goals. In the aftermath, Italy underwent a renaissance in leadership, shifting from Spalletti to Gattuso and signaling a new chapter in the nation’s football narrative.

Two light-hearted notes to wrap it up: If Italy's playoff quest were a pasta dish, it would be fusilli—twisty, challenging, and best enjoyed when not overcooked. And if you think the draw will settle everything, remember that even a perfectly boiled spaghetti can snap when the sauce hits the fan. On that optimistic culinary note, buon divertimento for the road ahead.