Italy’s World Cup Dream Hangs by a Thread: Playoff Peril Ahead
20 November 2025
Italy's playoff path and Materazzi's warning
The Italian national team continues its World Cup qualifying fight for 2026, with veteran defender Marco Materazzi stressing that Europe’s route remains brutal and qualification is never guaranteed. He noted that Italy failed to reach the last two World Cups and stressed that the upcoming playoff is a final chance to prove themselves.
Recently the playoff draw placed Italy in a semi-final against Northern Ireland, with the winner facing the victor of Wales versus Bosnia and Herzegovina to decide who advances to the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
The semi-final is scheduled on home soil, but if Italy advances to the final, they would play away from home.
The discussion around the national team’s path intensified after Materazzi spoke about the difficulty of matches and the need to be ready for a tough test, while also focusing on building a stronger foundation for both the senior squad and youth development.
The broader debate on qualification formats continues, with Europe allocated 16 World Cup berths, a point Materazzi noted while reminding that changes have occurred since earlier editions. He emphasized that Italy must maximize both quality and development to bridge the gap.
In the group context, Italy finished the qualifiers in second place in Group 9 with 18 points from eight matches, six behind the leaders Norway. The campaign opened with a shock loss away to Norway, which raised questions about the direction of the team under the then-coach.
After a 2-0 win over Moldova, coach Luciano Spalletti was dismissed and Gennaro Gattuso was appointed as the new manager. Gattuso’s start was bold: a 5-0 victory over Estonia, a 5-4 win against Israel, then a 3-1 win over Estonia and a 3-0 win over Moldova, before a 4-1 home defeat to Norway rekindling doubts about the national side.
Gattuso’s early record included several high-scoring wins, yet the heavy home defeat against Norway marked one of the most painful moments in recent Italian history. The match also featured a rare defensive slump, with four goals conceded in the second half—the first time such a deficit had occurred since 1955. It was also the first home defeat by a margin of three or more goals since 1983.
Overall, the road ahead remains challenging, with a playoff path to the World Cup and a long-term rebuild that must prioritize both the first team and the development of younger talents.
Punchline moment to keep spirits light: Note to Italy's coaches—if the playoff path were a kitchen, at least make a good risotto: stir, taste, adjust, and don’t burn the sauce.
Punchline moment two: And in football as in life, the only thing more complicated than this system is the post-match press conference.
