Jeddah Derby Through AI's Eyes: Who Holds the Edge?
7 November 2025
Match Context
Saudi football fans are in for a treat as Al-Ittihad visits city rivals Al-Ahli in Jeddah on Saturday night at the Al-Inma Stadium, in Week 8 of the Saudi Pro League.
The Jeddah Derby carries a history of more than 70 years and is among the oldest derbies in the Arab world, set in a period of high emotion for both sides as results and form loom large.
AI Forecast and Matchups
With Al-Ahli aiming to rebound locally under coach Matías Jaissle, and Al-Ittihad seeking to reassert their title challenge under Sérgio Conceição, an AI-based preview attempts to read the scene before kickoff and name the favorite.
Al-Ahli sit sixth with 13 points from 3 wins and 4 draws, having scored nine goals in seven matches. Their attack features Riyad Mahrez, Firas Al-Briqan and Jalino.
The predicted XI for Al-Ahli includes: GK Edouardo Mendy; Defenders Ali Majrashi, Merih Demiral, Roger Ibanez, Zakaria Hosawi; Midfield Franck Kessié, Enzo Milot, Matheus Goncalves; Attack Riyad Mahrez, Firas Al-Breikan, Jalino. Notable absences include Ziad Al-Jahani suspended, Ryan Hamid continuing rehabilitation, and Saad Al-Mousa and Maath Faqih sidelined, prompting tactical tweaks.
Al-Ittihad, under Conceição, sit with 11 points in eighth after a mixed start, hoping a win can restore confidence. Their Asian form has included big wins, fueling momentum.
Predicted XI for Al-Ittihad: GK Predrag Rajković; Defenders Muhannad Al-Shanqiti, Danilo Pereira, Mario Mýtai, Hassan Kadsh; Midfield Ngolo Kanté, Mamadou Doumbia, Faisal Al-Ghamdi; Attack Steven Bergwijn, Musa Diaby, Karim Benzema. Key injuries for the visitors include Fabianho suspended, Ahmed Shrahiili not fully fit, plus Saad Al-Mousa and Moath Faqih out, potentially tilting balance in defense.
The Numbers, Key Players and Verdict
AI reads show 57% possession advantage to Al-Ahli versus 43% for Al-Ittihad, reflecting Jaissle’s ball retention approach and Conceição’s quick transitions. Al-Ittihad is seen as more lethal on the break, while Al-Ahli builds play from the back with high passing accuracy around 87%.
The most impactful players are projected as Riyad Mahrez for Al-Ahli (roughly 36% of the team's attacking output) and Karim Benzema for Al-Ittihad (about 41%).
Win probabilities: Al-Ahli 42%, Al-Ittihad 38%, Draw 20%. Expect an open, high-octane affair with 2-3 goals, decided by set-pieces or minor defensive slips. Derby magic, however, often defies the numbers, driven by passion and crowd energy.
Final thought: with Al-Ahli pushing to domestic revival and Al-Ittihad eager to push forward, this clash could reshape the league’s landscape. And yes, the AI might be right—just remember: in a derby, the ball sometimes has a mind of its own, and so do the players. If you blink, you might miss the goal; if you blink twice, you’ll miss the second one—classic Jeddah drama.
Two punchlines to close on a lighter note: 1) If the AI nails this derby, we’ll call it a bullseye—even software can hit the back of the net when the crowd goes loud. 2) In football, the only thing sharper than a sniper is a striker who finds the net just as the stadium erupts.
