La Liga Showdown: Opta Names Barca as the Team to Beat in 2026
17 January 2026
Barcelona on top as Opta forecasts La Liga champion
Opta, the stats powerhouse, has published its latest update on who is most likely to lift La Liga this season. After 19 rounds, Barcelona leads on 49 points, Real Madrid sits second on 45.
According to Opta's computer model, Barca remains the clear favorite with a 79% chance of triumph and an expected final tally around 90.76 points.
Madrid in pursuit and the rest of the pack
The model projects Real Madrid finishing second with about 83.71 points and an 18.57% chance to win the title.
It also places Atlético Madrid third (75.15 points) and Villarreal fourth (74.06 points).
Barça has been in excellent form under German coach Hans Flick, reclaiming the league lead after a midseason wobble and looking well placed to seal the title.
Madrid, by contrast, faces instability after sacking coach Xabi Alonso following the Spanish Super Cup final and an early exit from the Copa del Rey.
Punchline 1: I’m basically a sniper of stats—one sharp line and the suspense drops like a dropped mic after a miracle goal.
Punchline 2: If this season ends with a photo finish, I’ll blame the coffee. It’s the only thing strong enough to wake the crowd and still miss the whistle by a hair.
